Let’s take a little walk down memory lane:
RCP Final Polling Average: 2012 Election: Obama 48.8% Romney 48.1%
Actual Results: Obama 51.1% Romney 47.2%
+0.7% vs +3.9% = +3.2% Swing to Obama on election day.
(see Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org/… and en.wikipedia.org/…)
Demographics have not changed to favor Republicans. Obama was hated just as much by Trump’s base, and Romney was a credible candidate, with an actual ground game. Trump does not have a ground game.
Current favorability is +15.8% Hillary vs Trump. www.realclearpolitics.com/… Obama vs. Romney was +10 ROMNEY. www.realclearpolitics.com/… Obama had a -5.2% Unfavorable at the election. Hillary is only -9.9% despite all that is thrown at her. Trump is THAT unfavorably viewed.
There is another recommended diary showing how people actually vote in the voting booth when confronted with a piece-of-shit candidate: www.dailykos.com/… The answer is… they do not forget their conscience in the voting booth.
Trump has as of today has received a whopping THREE newspaper endorsements, Hillary is picking up the vast majority of them (currently 159), even many conservative papers. en.wikipedia.org/… Don’t forget that KKK endorsement! www.politicususa.com/…
Obama’s job approval stands in the low to mid 50’s, with a +7% spread. www.realclearpolitics.com/… This is much higher than he won with in 2012 (see above) and does not bode well for a “vote for me because the government sucks” strategy that Trump is pushing.
Also note there are some tracking polls favoring Romney. Remember this one that caused a freakout?
www.gallup.com… Romney 49% Obama 48%
Or the awesome Rasmussen tracking poll showing a tie (final was +1 Romney)? web.archive.org/…
Even 2012 had their version of the LA Times / IBD/Tipp polls.
I am extremely uncomfortable with this election, but a massive Hillary landslide is much, much more likely than a Trump win.